Posts Tagged ‘ Recession ’

Auto Parts Marketing: Online Parts Sales to Reach $7.4 Billion in 2016

size of automotive industry

Note: this article is from January 2016. For an updated forecast, click here for a more current article. How big is the automotive aftermarket industry? Ecommerce auto parts sales will narrow the gap with traditional brick and mortar retail sales in 2016, and reach $7.4 billion excluding auctions and used parts. Ecommerce auto parts sales are projected to grow about 16% in 2016. The Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA) Joint Channel Forecast Model projects conventional retail do it yourself (DIY) sales to grow 3.5% in 2016. The size of the online auto parts market—sales of automotive and truck parts...

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November 2012: Monthly Vehicle Sales vs Consumer Confidence

November 2012: Monthly Vehicle Sales vs Consumer Confidence

New automotive industry statistics: After a somewhat slow October 2012, the auto industry saw an increase in light vehicle sales for November 2012. October brought somewhat sluggish auto sales, yielding a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 14.23M, November came in strong with 1.14 million units sold, raising the SAAR to 15.48M. Experts are observing that the sales are partly driven by the devastation left behind by Hurricane Sandy. Edmunds.com noted that about 30,000 sales of automobiles were lost or deferred in October due to the superstorm. Also, between 200,000 and 250,000 vehicles were damaged or destroyed by Sandy,...

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September Slowdown for Auto Parts Retail Sales

Retail sales through auto parts stores were down again compared to one year ago. September sales were down 4% from September 2011, following a 1% decline in August. Auto parts retail sales for the first half of 2012 posted better than a 5% increase from 2011, aided in part by unseasonably warm weather in January and February; the second half of this year tells a different story, however. The third quarter ended with about a 1% decrease from the third quarter of 2011. Total October retail sales as reported by the government were down 0.3% from September, a sign...

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Why New Car Auto Sales Are Rising

SAAR and consumer confidence

With monthly auto sales rising here are reasons for the continuing increase in automobile and light truck sales in the face of a weak economy. The auto industry tracks monthly unit sales as a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) figure, which has been steadily rising since the summer of 2009. Monthly auto sales in September 2012 hit 14.9 million units, the highest level in over four years. And it could have been even higher because September was soft for fleet sales, meaning the September surge was primarily based on consumer demand (which in itself is a good economic sign,...

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A Sign Auto Parts Retail Sales Are Slowing?

Today’s trend is a little concerning: the growth in auto parts sales is slowing down compared to the first half of 2012. This is important to watch as you plan your company’s automotive aftermarket forecast for 2013. Auto parts trends 2012 Retail sales of auto parts went negative for the second time this year. August 2012 showed a slight drop from 2011, following a decent July (up about 3.5%) and a slight drop in June. We’re holding to our forecast that the year will come in between 3% and 4% over 2011 but we’ll be watching economic signs closely...

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Trend 19: Auto Sales Rise in August and September

The US automotive industry has always played a large part in the economy, and the same industry that once needed a taxpayer bailout to stay alive may be the one to stave off another recession. Over the past two years, Ford Motor Co., General Motors Corp., Chrysler Group and other auto companies have added 90,000 manufacturing jobs—a 14% increase—according to federal employment data. New vehicle sales in August neared 1.3 million, according to Autodata Corp. This is the highest monthly sales figure since August 2007. After this surge in vehicle sales, analysts announced that they expect the industry will...

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Retail Auto Parts Sales Outlook for 2012

Welcome back to our blog! Today we’ll look at auto aftermarket Trend 25: Our outlook for retail auto parts and accessories sales for 2012 and two important industry trends you should know: Auto parts trends 2012 1). January-June 2012 showed about a 5.4% increase over 2011 despite June showing a decrease from one year ago. June 2012 went negative partially because June 2011 was a huge month. Still, it was the first month that didn’t show an increase over the previous year since February 2010 and that’s a concern. Even with June showing a decrease, the first half of...

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Trend 49: The Economy And Auto Parts Sales: Personal Income

retail sales and personal income

Retail sales of auto parts and accessories are influenced by many things in the economy. One component of our sales forecasting model at Hedges & Company is personal income, so for today’s trend we look at how that affects retail sales of auto parts. This chart shows the change in auto parts sales (red line) and the change in personal income (blue line) from one year ago. There’s a rather obvious similarity between changes in personal income and auto parts sales, dating back to the beginning of 2003. Auto parts sales bottomed out in late 2009 and it lines...

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Americans Spend More Income on Auto Parts, Reversing Long-Term Trend

Americans Spend More Income on Auto Parts, Reversing Long-Term Trend

A bit of good news to add to our post last month that sales of auto parts for 2011 will show an increase over 2010: Our market research shows the amount of auto parts purchased as a percentage of personal income has reversed a downward trend of more than 10 years. In 2010, retail sales of auto parts represented about half a percent of personal income (0.0513% to be exact). Preliminary numbers for 2011 show the first increase in that percentage in more than 10 years, to levels not seen since 2008. We’re projecting just over 0.052% of personal...

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How will 2011 be for the Automotive Aftermarket Industry?

How will 2011 be for the Automotive Aftermarket Industry?

Happy New Year for the automotive aftermarket industry! Following up on our popular blog post “What If You Invested $1,000 in Automotive Aftermarket Companies” the Hedges & Company Automotive Aftermarket Index finished 2010 with a 48% gain. In a dramatic comparison, the S&P 500 only increased 11% in 2010. Not only did the Hedges & Company Automotive Aftermarket Index outperform the S&P, but aside from a slight blip in June and July, the rise was steady and constant. Compared to the 2008 baseline (gray line in chart), 2010 was clearly a breakout year. The index bounced around the baseline...

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Auto Aftermarket is a Bright Spot In A Cloudy Economy

Auto Aftermarket is a Bright Spot In A Cloudy Economy

While economists report that the U.S. economy is “bumping along the bottom,” the Hedges & Company Aftermarket Stock Index continues its climb that started in March 2009. That’s right, March 2009, three months before the “Great Recession” was officially declared over. The stock index is comprised of over 20 publicly-traded automotive aftermarket SEMA-member/Auto Care Association-member companies and has steadily grown over 72%, March 2009 to November 2010. The chart below compares the stock index with the S&P 500. The S&P 500 does appear to bumping along the bottom with a hint of a slow recovery. In contrast, the Hedges...

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Why Was This Recession Different? It Was the Double-Dip In Auto Parts Sales

Why Was This Recession Different? It Was the Double-Dip In Auto Parts Sales

When looking at the auto parts retail segment of the economy, the Great Recession not only lasted longer than previous recessions, but our market research shows auto parts retail sales also had a double-dip. For all the talk in the news media earlier this year whether the recent recession would fall into a double-dip recession, the automotive aftermarket already had one.* And ironically sales for the aftermarket went into negative territory June 2009, when the current recession is now officially defined as ended. Confused? Read on. The start of the Great Recession and the auto industry From December 2007...

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Are Manufacturers the Catalyst for the Specialty Equipment Industry?

Are Manufacturers the Catalyst for the Specialty Equipment Industry?

Are specialty equipment manufacturers the light at the end of the tunnel? In a recent SEMA Financial Benchmarking research report, 70% of manufacturers reported an increase in year-to-date sales through June 2010. This optimism seems to continue through the fall months as 64% of the manufacturers expect sales to improve by an average of 17.5% through August, September, and October. However, retailers and distributors do not share that nearly unbridled enthusiasm. In the same market research report, 48% of retailers report an increase and 52% of distributors report increase in year-to-date sales for the first half of 2010. Their...

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